Deferring systems extend supervised Machine Learning (ML) models with the possibility to defer predictions to human experts. However, evaluating the impact of a deferring strategy on system accuracy is still an overlooked area. This paper fills this gap by evaluating deferring systems through a causal lens. We link the potential outcomes framework for causal inference with deferring systems. This allows us to identify the causal impact of the deferring strategy on predictive accuracy. We distinguish two scenarios. In the first one, we can access both the human and the ML model predictions for the deferred instances. In such a case, we can identify the individual causal effects for deferred instances and aggregates of them. In the second scenario, only human predictions are available for the deferred instances. In this case, we can resort to regression discontinuity design to estimate a local causal effect. We empirically evaluate our approach on synthetic and real datasets for seven deferring systems from the literature.

Human Assumed Central Sensitization is involved in the development and maintenance of chronic low back pain (CLBP). The Central Sensitization Inventory (CSI) was developed to evaluate the presence of HACS, with a cut-off value of 40/100 based on patients with chronic pain. However, various factors including pain conditions (e.g., CLBP), and gender may influence this cut-off value. For chronic pain condition such as CLBP, unsupervised clustering approaches can take these factors into consideration and automatically learn the HACS-related patterns. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the cut-off values for a Dutch-speaking population with CLBP, considering the total group and stratified by gender based on unsupervised machine learning. In this study, questionnaire data covering pain, physical, and psychological aspects were collected from patients with CLBP and aged-matched pain-free adults (referred to as healthy controls, HC). Four clustering approaches were applied to identify HACS-related clusters based on the questionnaire data and gender. The clustering performance was assessed using internal and external indicators. Subsequently, receiver operating characteristic analysis was conducted on the best clustering results to determine the optimal cut-off values. The study included 151 subjects, consisting of 63 HCs and 88 patients with CLBP. Hierarchical clustering yielded the best results, identifying three clusters: healthy group, CLBP with low HACS level, and CLBP with high HACS level groups. Based on the low HACS levels group (including HC and CLBP with low HACS level) and high HACS level group, the cut-off value for the overall groups were 35, 34 for females, and 35 for. The findings suggest that the optimal cut-off values for CLBP is 35. The gender-related cut-off values should be interpreted with caution due to the unbalanced gender distribution in the sample.

Finding a high-quality feasible solution to a combinatorial optimization (CO) problem in a limited time is challenging due to its discrete nature. Recently, there has been an increasing number of machine learning (ML) methods for addressing CO problems. Neural diving (ND) is one of the learning-based approaches to generating partial discrete variable assignments in Mixed Integer Programs (MIP), a framework for modeling CO problems. However, a major drawback of ND is a large discrepancy between the ML and MIP objectives, i.e., variable value classification accuracy over primal bound. Our study investigates that a specific range of variable assignment rates (coverage) yields high-quality feasible solutions, where we suggest optimizing the coverage bridges the gap between the learning and MIP objectives. Consequently, we introduce a post-hoc method and a learning-based approach for optimizing the coverage. A key idea of our approach is to jointly learn to restrict the coverage search space and to predict the coverage in the learned search space. Experimental results demonstrate that learning a deep neural network to estimate the coverage for finding high-quality feasible solutions achieves state-of-the-art performance in NeurIPS ML4CO datasets. In particular, our method shows outstanding performance in the workload apportionment dataset, achieving the optimality gap of 0.45%, a ten-fold improvement over SCIP within the one-minute time limit.

Topological data analysis (TDA) is a tool from data science and mathematics that is beginning to make waves in environmental science. In this work, we seek to provide an intuitive and understandable introduction to a tool from TDA that is particularly useful for the analysis of imagery, namely persistent homology. We briefly discuss the theoretical background but focus primarily on understanding the output of this tool and discussing what information it can glean. To this end, we frame our discussion around a guiding example of classifying satellite images from the Sugar, Fish, Flower, and Gravel Dataset produced for the study of mesocale organization of clouds by Rasp et. al. in 2020 (arXiv:1906:01906). We demonstrate how persistent homology and its vectorization, persistence landscapes, can be used in a workflow with a simple machine learning algorithm to obtain good results, and explore in detail how we can explain this behavior in terms of image-level features. One of the core strengths of persistent homology is how interpretable it can be, so throughout this paper we discuss not just the patterns we find, but why those results are to be expected given what we know about the theory of persistent homology. Our goal is that a reader of this paper will leave with a better understanding of TDA and persistent homology, be able to identify problems and datasets of their own for which persistent homology could be helpful, and gain an understanding of results they obtain from applying the included GitHub example code.

The complete blood count (CBC) performed by automated hematology analyzers is one of the most ordered laboratory tests. It is a first-line tool for assessing a patient's general health status, or diagnosing and monitoring disease progression. When the analysis does not fit an expected setting, technologists manually review a blood smear using a microscope. The International Consensus Group for Hematology Review published in 2005 a set of criteria for reviewing CBCs. Commonly, adjustments are locally needed to account for laboratory resources and populations characteristics. Our objective is to provide a decision support tool to identify which CBC variables are associated with higher risks of abnormal smear and at which cutoff values. We propose a cost-sensitive Lasso-penalized additive logistic regression combined with stability selection. Using simulated and real CBC data, we demonstrate that our tool correctly identify the true cutoff values, provided that there is enough available data in their neighbourhood.

Predicting discomfort glare in open-plan offices is a challenging problem since most of available glare metrics are developed for cellular offices which are typically daylight dominated. The problem with open-plan offices is that they are mainly dependent on electric lighting rather than daylight even when they have a fully glazed facade. In addition, the contrast between bright windows and the buildings interior can be problematic and may cause discomfort glare to the building occupants. These problems can affect occupant productivity and wellbeing. Thus, it is important to develop a predictive model to avoid discomfort glare when designing open plan offices. To the best of our knowledge, we are the first to adopt Machine Learning (ML) models to predict discomfort glare. In order to develop new glare predictive models for these types of offices, Post-Occupancy Evaluation (POE) and High Dynamic Range (HDR) images were collected from 80 occupants (n=80) in four different open-plan offices. Consequently, various multi-region luminance values, luminance and glare indices were calculated and used as input features to train ML models. The accuracy of the ML model was compared to the accuracy of 24 indices which were also evaluated using a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify the best cutoff values (thresholds) for each index for open-plan configurations. Results showed that the ML glare model could predict glare in open-plan offices with an accuracy of 83.8% (0.80 true positive rate and 0.86 true negative rate) which outperformed the accuracy of the previously developed glare metrics.

While the use of deep learning in drug discovery is gaining increasing attention, the lack of methods to compute reliable errors in prediction for Neural Networks prevents their application to guide decision making in domains where identifying unreliable predictions is essential, e.g. precision medicine. Here, we present a framework to compute reliable errors in prediction for Neural Networks using Test-Time Dropout and Conformal Prediction. Specifically, the algorithm consists of training a single Neural Network using dropout, and then applying it N times to both the validation and test sets, also employing dropout in this step. Therefore, for each instance in the validation and test sets an ensemble of predictions were generated. The residuals and absolute errors in prediction for the validation set were then used to compute prediction errors for test set instances using Conformal Prediction. We show using 24 bioactivity data sets from ChEMBL 23 that dropout Conformal Predictors are valid (i.e., the fraction of instances whose true value lies within the predicted interval strongly correlates with the confidence level) and efficient, as the predicted confidence intervals span a narrower set of values than those computed with Conformal Predictors generated using Random Forest (RF) models. Lastly, we show in retrospective virtual screening experiments that dropout and RF-based Conformal Predictors lead to comparable retrieval rates of active compounds. Overall, we propose a computationally efficient framework (as only N extra forward passes are required in addition to training a single network) to harness Test-Time Dropout and the Conformal Prediction framework, and to thereby generate reliable prediction errors for deep Neural Networks.

Grouping patients meaningfully can give insights about the different types of patients, their needs, and the priorities. Finding groups that are meaningful is however very challenging as background knowledge is often required to determine what a useful grouping is. In this paper we propose an approach that is able to find groups of patients based on a small sample of positive examples given by a domain expert. Because of that, the approach relies on very limited efforts by the domain experts. The approach groups based on the activities and diagnostic/billing codes within health pathways of patients. To define such a grouping based on the sample of patients efficiently, frequent patterns of activities are discovered and used to measure the similarity between the care pathways of other patients to the patients in the sample group. This approach results in an insightful definition of the group. The proposed approach is evaluated using several datasets obtained from a large university medical center. The evaluation shows F1-scores of around 0.7 for grouping kidney injury and around 0.6 for diabetes.

In this project, I've built a neural network architecture with a static execution graph that acts as a dynamic neural network in which connections between various neurons are controlled by the network itself. This is accomplished by manipulating the adjacency matrix representation of the network on a per-neuron basis with cell elements representing a'distance', and masking off connections that are within a threshold. Including a loss term based on the networks sparsity or processing time allows the architecture to optimize its structure for accuracy or speed. Alright, so hopefully I've caught your attention with the title. To begin, I'd like to explain a little behind why I've created this. My educational background is actually in the sciences, just at the junction between chemistry and physics.

Color to a set of bars within the histogram was assigned based on the Kidney Disease Outcomes Quality Initiative (KDOQI) guideline driven cutoff values for high and low creatinine. Model predictions were performed on the remaining 30% of the data (n 662), and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was generated. Color to a set of bars within the histogram was assigned based on the KDOQI guideline driven cutoff value for nephrotic-range proteinuria (g/d). Model predictions were performed on the remaining 30% of the data (n 648), and an ROC curve was generated.